If the fascist model is correct, we should not be at all surprised by the recent rhetoric or mass demonstrations. Hitler’s Germany and Mussolini’s Italy were every bit as sensitive to any sign of foreign criticism as the Chinese today, both because victimhood is always part of the definition of such states, and because it’s an essential technique of mass control. The violent denunciations of Westerners who criticize Chinese repression may not be a sign of internal anxiety or weakness. They may instead be a sign of strength, a demonstration of the regime’s popularity. Remember that European fascism did not fall as the result of internal crisis—it took a bloody world war to bring it down. Fascism was so alarmingly popular neither Italians not Germans produced more than token resistance until the war began to be lost. It may well be that the mass condemnation of Western calls for greater political tolerance is in fact a sign of political success.
如果我们上面作出的法西斯模型的猜测是正确的,那我们都不应该为最近的宣传和大规模示威而感到惊讶。当年的希特勒的德国和墨索里尼的意大利都像中国现在一样对每一点外国批评的迹象都那么敏感,都是因为把自己塑造成受害者是这样的政权国家的定义成分,因为这是重要的控制民众的手法。中国人强烈地遣责对中国的镇压政策进行评论的西方人,也许这并不能表明其内部的焦虑或软弱。这可能相反显示他们的强壮,实证了这个政体已经深得人心。记住欧洲法西斯主义并不是因为内部危机而垮台――而是血腥的世界大战让它垮台的。法西斯如此惊人地流行,在他们在战争中开始失利之前,他们从没有遇到过他们驾驭不了的抵抗。这样就有充分理由说明针对西方要求更多的政治宽容呼吁的大规模谴责事实上是政治成功的表现。
Since classical fascism had such a brief life span, it is hard to know whether or not a stable, durable fascist state is possible. Economically, the corporate state, of which the current Chinese system is a textbook example, may prove more flexible and adaptable than the rigid central planning that doomed communism in the Soviet Empire and elsewhere (although the travails of Japan, which also tried to combine capitalist enterprise with government guidance, show the kinds of problems China will likely face). Our brief experience with fascism makes it difficult to evaluate the possibilities of political evolution, and the People’s Republic is full of secrets. But prudentstrategists would do well to assume that the regime will be around for a while longer—perhaps a lot longer.
因为我们知道正统的法西斯主义只是昙花一现,所以这很难确定稳定、长久的法西斯政府是不是可能的。从经济上来看,社团主义(目前中国的制度就是一本可以为例的教科书)也许会证明更灵活的,更具适应性的经济制度比死板的中央计划经济更具合理性,因为中央计划经济在曾注定了共产主义在苏联帝国和其它地方的失败(即使曾经试图将资本主义企业与政府的指导相结合来运行经济的日本在此过程中所感到的阵痛会预示中国在这方面可能遇到的困难))。由于我们与法西斯主义只有短暂的交锋,我们很难估量政治进化过程中的种种可能,并且这人民的共和国是充满了秘密。但谨慎的战略家如果做出这个政权或许会长时间存在 –或许很长时间存在 – 这样的结论的话,也许会被证明是正确的。
If it is a popular, fascist regime, should the world prepare for some difficult and dangerous confrontations with the People’s Republic? Twentieth-century fascist states were very aggressive; Nazi Germany and fascist Italy were both expansionist nations. Is it not likely that China will similarly seek to enlarge its domain?
如果中国政府是深受欢迎的,法西斯的政权,那全世界是不是应该为与人民共和国可能发生的困难和危险的对峙做些准备呢?二十世纪的法西斯国家非常具有侵略性;纳粹德国和法西斯意大利均是扩张主义的国家。那中国是否也会同样寻求扩大其疆土?
I believe the answer is “yes, but.” Many Chinese leaders might like to see their sway extend throughout the region, and beyond. China’s military is not so subtly preparing the capability to defeat U.S. forces in Asia in order to prevent intervention in any conflict on its periphery. No serious student of China doubts the enormous ambitions of both the leadership and the masses. But, unlike Hitler and Mussolini, the Chinese tyrants do not urgently need quick geographical expansion to demonstrate the glory of their country and the truth of their vision. For the moment, at least, success at home and global recognition of Chinese accomplishments seem to be enough. Since Chinese fascism is less ideological than its European predecessors, Chinese leaders are far more flexible than Hitler and Mussolini.
我相信答案是“会的,但是”。许多中国领导人也许想看其势力在整个地区扩张,而且想扩张得更大。中国军队并没有那么预备好打败美军在亚洲的军力,来防止对其周边地区的任何冲突的干预。任何一个有理智的中国研究者都不会怀疑中国从领导人到民众的巨大野心。但是,与希特勒和墨索里尼不同,中国的暴君们并不急着快速进行地域扩张,以此来显示其国家的荣耀,显示远见卓识的正确性。至少就目前而言,国内的成功和被全球承认的中国成就似乎已经足够了。因为较其欧洲前辈,中国的法西斯主义没掺杂那么多空想主义,中国的领导人远远比希特勒与墨索里尼灵活得多。
Nonetheless, the short history of classical fascism suggests that it is only a matter of time before China will pursue confrontation with the West. That is built into the dna of all such regimes. Sooner or later, Chinese leaders will feel compelled to demonstrate the superiority of their system, and even the most impressive per capita GDP will not do. Superiority means others have to bend their knees, and cater to the wishes of the dominant nation. Just as Mussolini saw the colonization of Africa and the invasion of Greece and the Balkans as necessary steps in the establishment of a new fascist empire, so the Chinese are likely to demand tribute from their neighbors—above all, the Chinese on the island nation of Taiwan, in order to add the recovery of lost territory to the regime’s list of accomplishments. Even today, at a time when the regime is seeking praise, not tribute, in the run-up to the Olympic Games, there are bellicose overtones to official rhetoric.
虽然如此,正统法西斯短暂的历史暗示中国与西方进行面对面的较量只是时间问题。因为它早就写进了所有这种制度的DNA里了。中国的领导人迟早会感到不得不展现其制度的优越性,到那时连最让人惊叹的人均国内生产总值都不能证明这一点。优越性就意味着别人都要卑躬屈膝,都要来迎合这优越国家的意愿。正如墨索里尼认为非洲的殖民化和希腊与巴尔干地区的侵略行为都是建立其新法西斯帝国的必要步骤,所以中国可能要求其邻国向其表示臣服——首先,是台湾岛国上的人民必须对中国俯首称臣,这样得而复失的领土便会写到中共的战功簿上。目前,这个政权寻求的是赞美,而不是臣服,但是即使如此,在备战奥运的过程当中,我们从当局的语调里还是能感受到火药味。
How, then, should the democracies deal with China? The first step is to disabuse ourselves of the notion that wealth is the surest guarantor of peace. The West traded with the Soviet Union, and gave them credits as well, but it did not prevent the Kremlin from expanding into the Horn of Africa, or sponsoring terrorist groups in Europe and the Middle East. A wealthy China will not automatically be less inclined to go to war over Taiwan, or, for that matter, to wage or threaten war with Japan.
那么民主国家应该如何与中国打交道呢?第一步,是要使我们自己从“仓廪实而知礼节”这样的信仰中清醒过来。西方与苏联进行贸易,并且也给他们贷款,但这并不能阻止克里姆林宫把势力扩张到非洲的合恩,也没有阻止他赞助在欧洲和中东的恐怖主义集团。富裕的中国不会自动地减轻向台湾宣战的倾向,同样也不会减少发动战争或用战争威胁日本的可能。
Indeed, the opposite may be true—the richer and stronger China becomes, the more they build up their military might, the more likely such wars may be. It follows that the West must prepare for war with China, hoping thereby to deter it. A great Roman once said that if you want peace, prepare for war. This is sound advice with regard to a fascist Chinese state that wants to play a global role.
事实也许会正相反——中国越是富有,越是强大,他就越会增加其军事力量,越有可能发动这样的战争。这意味着西方必须做好与中国开战的准备,希望能从而阻止他。一个伟大的罗马人曾说过,如果你想要和平,那就准备好打仗吧。这个是个面对一个想要发挥全球性作用的法西斯中国的可靠建议。
Meanwhile, we should do what we can to convince the people of China that their long-term interests are best served by greater political freedom, no matter how annoying and chaotic that may sometimes be. I think we can trust the Chinese leaders on this one. Any regime as palpably concerned about the free flow of information, knows well that ideas about freedom might be very popular. Let’s test that hypothesis, by talking directly to “the billion.” In today’s world, we can surely find ways to reach them.
同时,我们应该尽可能地劝服中国人民,更大的政治自由将服务于他们的长远利益,无论这个过程有时会让让人感到多么恼怒和造成多大的麻烦。我想我们应该在这一点上相信中国领导人。任何顾虑信息的自由流通的政权都很清楚地知道自由思想将有可能很受欢迎。通过直接与“亿口人民”交谈,让我们考验一下这个假说吧。在当今世界,我们肯定能找到与他们接触的方法。
If we do not take such steps, our risk will surely increase, and explosions of rage, manipulated or spontaneous, will recur. Eventually they will take the form of real actions.
如果我们不采取这些步子,我们的风险肯定会增加,被人操纵或自发的愤怒将会重演。最终他们会采取真正的行动。
Mr. Ledeen is an expert on U.S. foreign policy at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. He served as a commissioner on the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review
Ledeen是美国外交政策专家——一个为公共政策研究的美国企业研究所。他是在中羡经济与安全审议委员会的委员